"Predictions are for gypsies." - Toe Blake
The 2011-12 NHL regular season is finally over. For Canadian fans, unless you happen to live in Ottawa or Vancouver, it will largely be one to forget as 5 of the 7 teams based in the home of hockey find themselves on the outside looking in this post-season.
Regardless of how you feel about this "Year of the Concussion", here we go with my picks for the first round of this year's race for the Stanley Cup.
Eastern Conference
New York Rangers - Ottawa Senators
The Call: Rangers in 6.
The Call: Rangers in 6.
On paper, as they say, this should be a cakewalk for the Rangers. They possess one of the NHL's best defences whereas the Senators have the fourth worst goals against average in the league. But, last we checked hockey isn't played on paper, but on the ice.
The Senators saw Jason Spezza finally develop into the player that most observers have always believed he could be this season. Milan Michalek had a breakout offensive season, Erik Karlsson was far and away the best offensive defenseman in the league, and rookie head coach Paul McLean was able to get this club to believe in their chances pretty much from day one. But it won't be enough...
In Henrik Lundqvist, the Rangers have Vezina Trophy caliber goaltending. And, contrary to last year, Lundqvist is heading into this post-season well rested, thanks to the solid play of backup goalie Martin Biron. The Rangers' blueline corps is also top-notch with the first pair of Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi ably supported by Michael Del Zotto and Marc Staal.
With Brad Richards, Marian Gaborik, and Ryan Callahan leading the way up front, the Rangers should ultimately take this series. But they will have their hands full.
Boston Bruins - Washington Capitals
The Call: Bruins in 5
The Call: Bruins in 5
It has been an up and down (mostly down) season for the Washington Capitals. The Caps, a chronically underachieving bunch, finally got their head coach, Bruce Boudreau fired early into the season. The expected bounce that the arrival of new head coach and former Washington Capitals legend Dale Hunter was expected to provide never really happened, yet they managed to stumble into a playoff position with a late season push.
The Bruins have also had their share of hot and cold moments this season, with many observers attributing their streaky play to a Stanley Cup hangover following last year's inspirational win. The jury is still out on the possibility of the Bruins going deep into the post-season this year, but they should cruise through the Caps on guts alone.
Florida Panthers - New Jersey Devils
The Call: Devils in 6.
Hard to get really excited about this one.
Long and short of it is that the Devils have been here before, and they have Martin Brodeur. Sure the Panthers are a good-news story this year. Impressive turnaround with GM Dale Tallon and head coach Kevin Dineen at the helm.
Whatever happens, neither of these teams is what can be considered a front-runner for the Cup.
The Call: Devils in 6.
Hard to get really excited about this one.
Long and short of it is that the Devils have been here before, and they have Martin Brodeur. Sure the Panthers are a good-news story this year. Impressive turnaround with GM Dale Tallon and head coach Kevin Dineen at the helm.
Whatever happens, neither of these teams is what can be considered a front-runner for the Cup.
Pittsburgh Penguins - Philadelphia Flyers
The Call: Pittsburgh in 6.
The Call: Pittsburgh in 6.
This series has been designated by yours truly as the series to watch in the Eastern Conference.
We've repeated ad infinitum that "the Flyers just need goaltending" and in the off-season Mr. Snider and the boys decided to throw as much cash as they could at their legendary goaltending woes and went all-in with Ilya Bryzgalov. Those who have followed Bryzgalov since his beginnings in the NHL with the Ducks kind of suspected that the Russian goalie was a little different. One season with the Flyers proved that Bryzgalov is indeed "wired a little different" as they say down home. He' s a little strange, but when he' s focused on stopping pucks, he' s one of the best in the business.
So, we've established that the Flyers seem to have pretty good goaltending. Which is a good thing for them because it turns out that they are going to really need it.
The Pittsburgh Penguins will be coming at the Philadelphia Flyers with as healthy of a Malkin-Crosby duo the NHL has had in quite a while. Recap...
Malkin just officially wrapped up the NHL scoring title. Gino got himself 109 points and notched up 50 goals in what was a Hart Trophy caliber season. A brilliant season by any standards.
Crosby came back, scored a bunch of points in a short period, went out again, came back again, and has been scoring points by the bucketload and pissing of opponents since. 37 points in 22 games.
Pro-rate that production and you get yourself a 138 point season. Yeah, that' s right 138 point season. It's been 25 years since somebody has scored 138 point in a season. Them's Mario Lemieux numbers.
Which brings us back to this Flyers-Pens series and the reason for the call in favour of Pittsburgh.
Sidney Crosby will focus on playing hockey and avoiding post whistle activity in this round. Like all of the men who come to dominate the game of hockey, Crosby is an intelligent man. He is also a highly emotional man.
Hockey is an emotional and intelligent game, therefore achieving a balance that yin and yang is a skill as essential as being able to skate, shoot, and pass. Sidney Crosby is very well aware that he needs to control himself. It's his Achilles' Heel. But like all great athletes, he knows that he has to work at his weaknesses as well as his strengths.
They said Orr couldn' t be a good defensive defenceman with his run and gun style. He proved them all wrong by not only becoming the best offensive defenceman of all-time, arguably the straight-up best offensive player of all-time, but also no doubt one of the best shut-down defensive players as well.
Wayne Gretzky, they said, was too small, too slow, and didn't have a good enough shot. The only times where his size may have been a bit of an issue were; once, when he got nailed at the blueline at Maple Leafs Gardens with his head down, and when he got cross-checked face first into the boards by Gary Suter, injuring his back.
As for Gretzky being too slow, all I know is that we've seen an awful lot of guys chasing him over the years. He may not have been the fastest, but he certainly more than fast enough. As for his shot, well, we all saw what he could do coming across the blueline with a full head of steam, and cranking it as hard as he could past more than just one or two goalies.
This to say that the greats, the truly greats, have made strengths of their perceived weaknesses, and I believe that Crosby will ultimately do the same. It doesn't play well into the Pens' hand to start jabbering, and pushing, and shoving after the whistles against the Flyers.
They can still win a chippy, ugly series against the Flyers should they wish, but that would not be a very smart approach. All that does is add games to the series, and more importantly, wear and tear on the players.
The best approach? Just go in against the Flyers like pros. Play hard, keep your mouths shut, win the games, move on to the next round. Remember, Penguins, the goal is to win the Cup.
The Pittsburgh Penguins will be coming at the Philadelphia Flyers with as healthy of a Malkin-Crosby duo the NHL has had in quite a while. Recap...
Malkin just officially wrapped up the NHL scoring title. Gino got himself 109 points and notched up 50 goals in what was a Hart Trophy caliber season. A brilliant season by any standards.
Crosby came back, scored a bunch of points in a short period, went out again, came back again, and has been scoring points by the bucketload and pissing of opponents since. 37 points in 22 games.
Pro-rate that production and you get yourself a 138 point season. Yeah, that' s right 138 point season. It's been 25 years since somebody has scored 138 point in a season. Them's Mario Lemieux numbers.
Which brings us back to this Flyers-Pens series and the reason for the call in favour of Pittsburgh.
Sidney Crosby will focus on playing hockey and avoiding post whistle activity in this round. Like all of the men who come to dominate the game of hockey, Crosby is an intelligent man. He is also a highly emotional man.
Hockey is an emotional and intelligent game, therefore achieving a balance that yin and yang is a skill as essential as being able to skate, shoot, and pass. Sidney Crosby is very well aware that he needs to control himself. It's his Achilles' Heel. But like all great athletes, he knows that he has to work at his weaknesses as well as his strengths.
They said Orr couldn' t be a good defensive defenceman with his run and gun style. He proved them all wrong by not only becoming the best offensive defenceman of all-time, arguably the straight-up best offensive player of all-time, but also no doubt one of the best shut-down defensive players as well.
Wayne Gretzky, they said, was too small, too slow, and didn't have a good enough shot. The only times where his size may have been a bit of an issue were; once, when he got nailed at the blueline at Maple Leafs Gardens with his head down, and when he got cross-checked face first into the boards by Gary Suter, injuring his back.
As for Gretzky being too slow, all I know is that we've seen an awful lot of guys chasing him over the years. He may not have been the fastest, but he certainly more than fast enough. As for his shot, well, we all saw what he could do coming across the blueline with a full head of steam, and cranking it as hard as he could past more than just one or two goalies.
This to say that the greats, the truly greats, have made strengths of their perceived weaknesses, and I believe that Crosby will ultimately do the same. It doesn't play well into the Pens' hand to start jabbering, and pushing, and shoving after the whistles against the Flyers.
They can still win a chippy, ugly series against the Flyers should they wish, but that would not be a very smart approach. All that does is add games to the series, and more importantly, wear and tear on the players.
The best approach? Just go in against the Flyers like pros. Play hard, keep your mouths shut, win the games, move on to the next round. Remember, Penguins, the goal is to win the Cup.
Western Conference
Vancouver Canucks - Los Angeles Kings
The Call: Canucks in 5
Most agree that the only scenario in which the Los Angeles Kings win this series is that if both Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider forget to show up for the Canucks and that Jamie Quick plays just absolutely lights out hockey.
That might be oversimplifiying it somewhat, but facts are facts. The Vancouver Canucks have put together back-to-back President's Trophy seasons and are coming off a playoff year that saw them come to within one win of the Stanley Cup.
The Kings have some big names and big salaries on their roster, the Canucks have names and achievements on their rosters.
Wouldn' t be shocked to see a sweep...
Most agree that the only scenario in which the Los Angeles Kings win this series is that if both Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider forget to show up for the Canucks and that Jamie Quick plays just absolutely lights out hockey.
That might be oversimplifiying it somewhat, but facts are facts. The Vancouver Canucks have put together back-to-back President's Trophy seasons and are coming off a playoff year that saw them come to within one win of the Stanley Cup.
The Kings have some big names and big salaries on their roster, the Canucks have names and achievements on their rosters.
Wouldn' t be shocked to see a sweep...
St-Louis Blues - San Jose Sharks
The Call: Blues in 5
Since Ken Hitchcock took over behind the St-Louis Blues bench on November 6th they have been one of the NHL's best teams. And like all winning teams, they did it through defence and home ice dominance.
The Blues allowed a league-low 165 goals and have a remarkable 30-6-5 record at home. The Elliott-Halak tandem has worked very well for them all season. The fact that almost all of the Blues' regulars are "plus" players is also bodes well for them.
The San Jose Sharks had a difficult season. They struggled mightily to remain in the top 8 in the Western Conference and didn't wrap up a playoff spot until the last week.
Since Ken Hitchcock took over behind the St-Louis Blues bench on November 6th they have been one of the NHL's best teams. And like all winning teams, they did it through defence and home ice dominance.
The Blues allowed a league-low 165 goals and have a remarkable 30-6-5 record at home. The Elliott-Halak tandem has worked very well for them all season. The fact that almost all of the Blues' regulars are "plus" players is also bodes well for them.
The San Jose Sharks had a difficult season. They struggled mightily to remain in the top 8 in the Western Conference and didn't wrap up a playoff spot until the last week.
Phoenix Coyotes - Chicago Blackhawks
The Call: Blackhawks in 6
This series could boil down to a battle of respective MVPs.
Mike Smith has been arguably the best defenceman in the league down the homestretch and has to be considered as a serious Vezina Trophy candidate. He finished fourth among goalies in wins, 3rd in shutouts and save percentage and 7th in goals against average. In his last 5 games he allowed just two goals on 192 shots, easily making him the hottest goalie in the NHL at this moment.
For Chicago, the good news is that it appears as though captain Jonathan Toews is ready to go after missing the last 22 games of the season with a concussion. Toews has clearly established himself as one of the game's best leaders with a propensity for playing his best during big games.
The Hawks also enjoy much more depth in their lineup than does Phoenix. The Coyotes have a 1st line of Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan, and Ray Whitney, with little else to support them. Not exactly up to Chicago's roster of Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Patrick Bolland, and Viktor Stalberg.
This series could boil down to a battle of respective MVPs.
Mike Smith has been arguably the best defenceman in the league down the homestretch and has to be considered as a serious Vezina Trophy candidate. He finished fourth among goalies in wins, 3rd in shutouts and save percentage and 7th in goals against average. In his last 5 games he allowed just two goals on 192 shots, easily making him the hottest goalie in the NHL at this moment.
For Chicago, the good news is that it appears as though captain Jonathan Toews is ready to go after missing the last 22 games of the season with a concussion. Toews has clearly established himself as one of the game's best leaders with a propensity for playing his best during big games.
The Hawks also enjoy much more depth in their lineup than does Phoenix. The Coyotes have a 1st line of Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan, and Ray Whitney, with little else to support them. Not exactly up to Chicago's roster of Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Patrick Bolland, and Viktor Stalberg.
Nashville Predators - Detroit Red Wings
The Call: Predators in 7
In the Western Conference, this should be the "must-watch" series.
On the surface, these teams appear to be evenly matched. Both teams finished with 48 wins. Both teams feature balanced attacks and strong scoring support from their respective bluelines.
In nets, Nashville's Pekka Rinne is coming off his best regular season of his career, whereas Detroit's Jimmy Howard looked as though he might give Martin Brodeur's record of 48 regular season wins a run for its money until injury dashed those hopes.
The one area that plays in favour of Nashville is in home vs. road performance. The Red Wings have been lights out within the friendly confines of Joe Louis Arean putting together a record of 31-7-3 at home. On the road, it has been a different story as they struggled to a 17-21-3 mark, which is the same as the Toronto Maple Leafs, hardly an impressive lot. At 22-16-3, Nashville owns the 2nd best road record in the Western Conference.
Home ice advantage may just end up being the difference in this one.
In the Western Conference, this should be the "must-watch" series.
On the surface, these teams appear to be evenly matched. Both teams finished with 48 wins. Both teams feature balanced attacks and strong scoring support from their respective bluelines.
In nets, Nashville's Pekka Rinne is coming off his best regular season of his career, whereas Detroit's Jimmy Howard looked as though he might give Martin Brodeur's record of 48 regular season wins a run for its money until injury dashed those hopes.
The one area that plays in favour of Nashville is in home vs. road performance. The Red Wings have been lights out within the friendly confines of Joe Louis Arean putting together a record of 31-7-3 at home. On the road, it has been a different story as they struggled to a 17-21-3 mark, which is the same as the Toronto Maple Leafs, hardly an impressive lot. At 22-16-3, Nashville owns the 2nd best road record in the Western Conference.
Home ice advantage may just end up being the difference in this one.
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